International arrivals in Europe on fourth quarter of 2016 are increasing

International arrivals in Europe on fourth quarter of 2016 are increasing, boosted by long haul travellers

The latest results from the Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer* produced by European Cities Marketing and ForwardKeys highlight a recovery for International arrivals in Europe on Q4 2016, marked by Intra European flows’ return to flat performance and good progress of long haul travellers.

Number of long haul travellers increased by 3.9% in Q4 2016 compared to Q4 2015
All International arrivals in Europe grew by 1.4%, especially fuelled by the surge of North America while Intra European flows stalled. The more beneficial exchange rate of the USD vs. Euro and GBP could be behind this very positive performance. Central & South American regions show a highly positive trend helped by visa waivers to countries such as Peru since March or Colombia since January 2016, the two fastest growing countries in the region.
Intra European flows, accounting for 60% of arrivals in Europe as per ForwardKeys database, have returned to a flat performance after four consecutive negative quarters.
Asia & Oceania and Africa have interrupted the previous negative trend of Q2 and Q3 2016 vs 2015. This is most likely related to the comparison with a very troubled Q4 2015 in Paris. Concerns over security affected all of Europe, as combined trips among its cities are very popular for long haul visitors.

Booking situation depicts a positive scenario for Q1 2017 compared to Q1 2016
Chinese New Year is taking centre stage as a major trigger for Chinese travel, pushing Asia & Oceania share to 15%. Central & South America maintain their rising path in bookings, following a successful Q4 2016, while the drop in bookings issued from Middle East is considerable.

Top growing destinations regarding bookings for Q1 2017 are distributed throughout the continent
Among the top 10 European destinations, only Istanbul sees a delayed booking situation vs. last year. This is no doubt related to the pressing terror threats and attacks. Unlike in the previous barometer, top growing destinations are not so much related to a sand and seaside experience but display a more varied map of northern and southern cultural corners with cities such as: Madeira, Lisbon, Tallinn, Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Madrid, Venice, Seville and Milan.

All ECM members have exclusive access to the complete European Cities Marketing-ForwardKeys Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer with all the graphs and analysis.

*This analyse is based on Air Reservation Data propriety of ForwardKeys® as of December 31, 2016.
Perimeter: Includes air reservations made by passengers arriving in Europe and staying at least one night in destination, therefore excluding: “Transits”, “Day trips”, “One-way trips” and “Returns”.
Arrival period: 1 October – 31 December 2016 vs. 1 October – 31 December 2015
Booking situation for next quarter: 1 January – 31 March 2017 vs. 1 January – 31 March 2016 according to bookings issued as of 31 December 2016 and as of 31 December 2015.

Long haul arrivals in Europe rested on the shoulders of Asia & Oceania markets during fourth quarter of 2014

Long haul arrivals in Europe rested on the shoulders of Asia & Oceania markets during fourth quarter of 2014

The new results from the Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer* produced by European Cities Marketing and ForwardKeys highlight that 2014 international arrivals increased by 3.2% compared to 2013 driven by long-haul markets and more particularly Asia and Middle East.

During the fourth quarter of 2014, Asia & Pacific continued driving the growth in long-haul arrivals to Europe, compensating the severe decrease in Africa (-6.9%) caused partly by the Ebola outbreak.
Regaining its bigger market share of 67% during winter season, intra-European flow, however, suffered a modest decrease of -1%, mostly due to the collapse of Russia & Ukraine markets in November and December 2014.
Yearly performance showed overall constant growths in all source subcontinents (+3.2%), despite the slowing down in the last quarter.

Solid market shares were seen in solo and couple travellers, last-month bookers, as well as vacationers staying 6 to 13 nights, for the fourth quarter of 2014. However the fastest growths were seen in group traveller (+32.7%) as well as early booker segment (+11.8%).

Current forward bookings trends for international arrivals in Europe during the first quarter of 2015 show a depressing situation for intra-regional (-0.3%) and African (-2.5%) flows while Asia & Pacific and Middle East perform above the promising average long-haul growth with respectively +17.6% and +16.1% growth compared to the first quarter of 2014.
Top 5 destinations in terms of market share remain the same for both historical and expected arrivals, among which Paris, Istanbul, and Rome stand out in advanced bookings compared to previous year.

All ECM members have exclusive access to the complete European Cities Marketing-ForwardKeys Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer with all the graphs and analysis.